Question about combat in 1.61

Combat Rating has been a huge help simplifying comparisons between fleets.  But I wonder if it's over-valuing my survey ship here.  Here's the match-up.  In one corner:
My ship, Combat Rating 8
Beam 3
Missile 4
Shield 1
Evasion 1
Armor 1
Hit Points 63 (64 -1 point of current damage)

In the other corner:
Pirate "Paladin", Combat Rating 7
Beam 8
Missile 2
Kinetic 2
Armor 10
Hit Points 38

This guy mopped the floor with me.  I did 5 damage and was totally destroyed.  When you look at the actual stats, it doesn't seem shocking, but the combat rating seemed to indicate I *should* win?  I wasn't sure so I tried it.  Now I know that 7 ate 9 but uh, I bet GC4 combat isn't based on dad jokes.  (Tell me it's not based on dad jokes.)

Also the game really really didn't want to show me the battle prediction for some reason.